ATFX：美联储权威遭遇前所未有挑战，黄金突破4600美元只是开始，还是终极警告？

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is experiencing a significant institutional risk event, leading to a surge in gold prices, which have surpassed the $4600 mark, driven by a reassessment of "trust in the financial system" rather than traditional inflation or recession concerns [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The primary catalyst for the current gold price surge is heightened market sensitivity to potential threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly due to the investigation surrounding Chairman Powell, which has amplified concerns about political interference in monetary policy [1] - The weakening of the US dollar index reflects a structural shift towards risk aversion, with investors actively reducing dollar exposure and reallocating to gold and other non-credit assets for hedging purposes [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical risks, including instability in the Middle East, domestic unrest in Iran, political variables in Latin America, and uncertainties in US foreign policy, contribute to a high-volatility, low-predictability global environment [2] - The demand for safe-haven assets has evolved from short-term emotional reactions to more sustained strategic allocations, which is a key reason for gold's strength at elevated price levels [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Current gold price movements align closely with macroeconomic conditions, showing a clear upward trend within a defined channel, with recent price action indicating high-level consolidation without clear reversal signals [4] - Key resistance levels are identified between $4613 and $4650, while support is found around $4509 and $4474, suggesting that as long as prices remain above these support levels, the upward trend is intact [4] Group 4: Monetary Policy Implications - The medium-term support for gold remains robust, as the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at neutral levels, with a prevailing bias towards rate cuts rather than hikes, which continues to suppress real interest rates and favor non-yielding assets like gold [4] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The $4600 mark is viewed as a "risk warning line" rather than the end of a bull market, with potential for short-term fluctuations; however, the underlying logic for a medium-term bull market in gold remains intact due to ongoing institutional uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and policy expectations [5]