AI、高股息、新质生产力：2026开年市场如何走？|投向预言家

Group 1 - The core viewpoint for 2026 A-shares is likely to be driven by a dual engine of "consumption recovery" and "technological self-reliance" [4] - The national fiscal work conference has set the tone for 2026, emphasizing "strongly boosting consumption" and committing to "continue arranging funds to support the replacement of consumer goods" [3] - Short-term focus should be on sectors directly benefiting from policies, such as major appliances, new energy vehicles, and smart home industries, which are the primary targets for subsidies [3] Group 2 - Mid-term investments should target "hard technology" sectors like semiconductors, industrial mother machines, and AI hardware, as the conference highlighted increased investment in technology and key manufacturing industry actions [3] - Long-term attention should be given to areas related to employment services, vocational training, and urban renewal, which are crucial for improving consumer capacity [3] - The market's risk appetite is expected to remain neutral to warm, with a significant reduction in concerns over potential tariff and trade-related risks, supported by positive government statements from both China and the U.S. regarding economic performance in 2026 [5] Group 3 - Structural opportunities are anticipated to expand further in 2026, with cyclical industries like non-ferrous metals and chemicals expected to benefit from economic recovery and supply-side improvements [5] - The ongoing AI wave and the demand for self-reliance in technology remain core investment themes [5] - The difficulty of stock selection is expected to increase in 2026, necessitating in-depth research to seize stock picking and timing opportunities [5]