百利好晚盘分析：黄金向上破位 短期维持强势

Gold - Geopolitical tensions remain high as Iran's foreign minister claims that Iranian security forces have controlled the national situation, with the US and Israel bearing "direct responsibility" for events in Iran. President Trump has stated that any country doing business with Iran will face a 25% tariff, and airstrikes against Iran are a potential option [2] - Analyst Chen Yu from Bailihau believes that the Trump administration's threats against the current Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will likely undermine the Fed's independence, increasing market distrust in the US dollar and leading to a strong performance in gold in the short term [2] - On the technical front, the previous trading day saw a bullish trend with a closing positive candle, indicating a strong short-term market. The price has broken through previous highs, suggesting potential for further upward movement. Support is noted in the $4550-$4560 range [2] Crude Oil - The US State Department has issued an emergency security warning for American citizens to leave Iran immediately, indicating a potential for airstrikes against Iran, which could escalate tensions in the Middle East and support oil prices due to supply disruption risks [3] - Despite geopolitical tensions potentially driving oil prices higher, the fundamental outlook remains concerning due to oversupply risks, with OPEC+ and US production levels remaining high. Recent economic data indicates a slowdown in US economic growth, which may hinder improvements in oil demand [3] - Technically, the oil price has recently broken above the 20-day moving average, indicating strength. The price has surpassed the previous resistance level of $58.80, suggesting potential for further upward movement. Support is noted at the $58.50 level [3] US Dollar Index - Recent US economic data has been disappointing, with May non-farm payrolls adding only 50,000 jobs, falling short of market expectations. The annual increase for 2025 is projected to be less than 600,000, marking the worst performance since the pandemic. Although the unemployment rate has decreased from 4.5% to 4.4%, the decline in labor force participation indicates that improvements in the job market are not stable [4] - The manufacturing PMI for December fell to 47.9, remaining below the neutral line for ten consecutive months, indicating ongoing contraction in the US manufacturing sector [4] - According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 5.0%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 95.0%. By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 26.0% [4] - On the technical side, the previous trading day saw a decline from highs, indicating potential for further downward risk. However, the overall trend remains upward, with the price still above the 20-day and 62-day moving averages, suggesting short-term bullish sentiment. Support is noted at the 98.69 level [4] Nikkei 225 - The recent trend in the Nikkei 225 has been strong, with the price breaking out of previous consolidation patterns, indicating a bullish outlook and potential for further upward movement [5] - On the 4-hour chart, the price is moving along the 62-day moving average, with short-term attention on a potential pullback to test support at the 52626 level [5] Copper - The recent trend in copper has been characterized by a primary upward movement, with expectations for continuation. Indicators show that both the 20-day and 62-day moving averages are trending upward, indicating a strong bullish trend [6] - On the 4-hour chart, the price has been moving along the 62-day moving average, with attention on a potential pullback to test support at the $5.83 level [6]