ATFX:美联储权威遭遇前所未有挑战 黄金突破4600美元只是开始还是终极警告

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant surge in gold prices, driven by a rare systemic risk event in the global financial market, with gold surpassing the $4600 mark, indicating a re-evaluation of "trust in the financial system" rather than traditional inflation or recession drivers [1] - The primary catalyst for this surge is the heightened concern regarding the potential impact on the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly in light of the controversy surrounding Chairman Powell, which has amplified investor fears of political interference in monetary policy [1] - The weakening of the US dollar index reflects a structural shift towards safe-haven assets, with investors actively reducing dollar exposure and turning to gold as a hedge against systemic risk and policy uncertainty [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks, including instability in the Middle East, domestic unrest in Iran, political variables in Latin America, and uncertainties in US foreign policy, contribute to a high-volatility, low-predictability global environment, leading to a sustained demand for safe assets like gold [2] - From a technical perspective, gold is currently in a clear upward channel, with recent price movements indicating a high-level consolidation phase rather than a reversal signal, suggesting that the upward trend remains intact [5] - The mid-term support for gold remains strong, as the market perceives interest rates to be near neutral levels, with expectations for rate cuts prevailing while the space for rate hikes is limited, which continues to exert downward pressure on real interest rates, benefiting non-yielding assets like gold [5] Group 3 - The $4600 level is viewed as a "risk warning line" rather than the end of a bull market, with potential for short-term fluctuations but a sustained bullish logic for gold in the face of ongoing systemic uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and policy expectations [6] - The article emphasizes that the key focus for the market should not be on short-term price corrections but rather on whether this trust and risk reassessment has fundamentally altered gold's long-term positioning in global asset allocation [7]