上证综指迎“十七连阳”

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend since the beginning of 2026, driven by multiple factors including the technology cycle, policy benefits, economic recovery, and the return of overseas capital [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 12, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index has achieved a "seventeen consecutive days" rise, with significant increases in trading volume and active capital inflow [1][3]. - The performance of various sectors shows that cyclical stocks, technology stocks, and military industry stocks have led the gains, while financial and consumer stocks have underperformed [1][3]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The dual momentum from technology and cyclical sectors has significantly enhanced risk appetite among investors, with the digital economy, particularly AI and semiconductors, leading the charge [3][4]. - The release of concentrated economic policies since the beginning of 2026, including a 625 billion yuan special bond for consumer upgrades, has contributed to the market's positive outlook [4][5]. - Economic recovery is gaining momentum, with manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs returning above the growth line, indicating a shift towards quality and efficiency in corporate operations [5][6]. Group 3: Capital Flows - The appreciation of the RMB against the USD has attracted overseas capital back to China, as global investors seek stable assets amid geopolitical uncertainties [6][7]. - Data indicates an increase in holdings of Chinese assets by global and Asian funds compared to the end of 2024, supported by targeted policies and growth in AI-related profits [7]. Group 4: Futures Market Dynamics - The narrowing of the basis in stock index futures indicates strong bullish sentiment among investors, with significant shifts in the annualized basis rates for various contracts [8][9]. - Recent fluctuations in futures contracts suggest a potential adjustment phase, with the cost of rolling over contracts decreasing, reflecting a more favorable position for investors [10][11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is transitioning from valuation-driven growth to profit-driven performance, with individual stock performance increasingly tied to fundamental improvements and rising economic conditions [11][12]. - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by ongoing policy effects, enhanced economic recovery, and the sustained influx of overseas capital [12].