Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-13 09:44Group 1 - The recent U.S. employment data has prompted a reassessment of monetary policy direction, leading major Wall Street financial institutions to adjust their predictions regarding Federal Reserve interest rate actions [1][4] - Notably, JPMorgan has retracted its previous forecast of a potential rate cut in January, now predicting that the Fed's next action will be an interest rate hike, likely in the third quarter of next year, by 25 basis points [4] - Other institutions such as Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley have also postponed their expectations for the first rate cut, with Goldman and Barclays moving their forecasts from the first half of this year to September and December, respectively [4][6] Group 2 - Market trading data reflects this shift, with traders significantly increasing the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates at its January meeting [6] - JPMorgan's analysis indicates that if the labor market weakens again or inflation declines significantly, policy may still shift towards easing, but the base prediction is for the labor market to tighten in the second quarter with a slow decline in inflation [6] - External factors have also been noted to complicate the monetary policy path, with concerns about the Fed's independence arising from certain events, although mainstream views still hold that rate decisions will primarily depend on statutory responsibilities and economic data [8]