【特稿】惠誉：美联储“独立性”为美债评级关键

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings considers the "independence" of the Federal Reserve as a key factor in maintaining the United States' AA+ sovereign credit rating, especially in light of the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell by the U.S. Department of Justice [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve has been a contentious issue, with former Fed Chairs and other economic officials condemning attempts to undermine it through judicial means [1] - Analysts from Jefferies Group and Morgan Stanley have expressed skepticism about the Fed's true independence, suggesting that political pressures have always been present and are increasing [1][2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Powell's investigation has triggered a "sell-off" in U.S. assets, leading to a decline in the dollar index and a rise in gold prices, which reached a historical high of over $4600 per ounce [2] - Analysts indicate that the situation reflects a growing perception that U.S. assets are becoming less attractive, with the country appearing more predatory [2] Group 3: Political Implications - There are concerns that any successor to Powell who does not align with former President Trump's wishes may face criminal prosecution, highlighting the political risks associated with the Fed's leadership [2] - Signs suggest that Powell may resist stepping down, with potential delays in the Senate's confirmation of a new Fed Chair [2]