1.13日BTC，ETH继续走结构性行情，市场等待fed数据

Group 1 - The core event involves Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell facing a criminal investigation, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] - The U.S. Senate is reviewing the "2025 Digital Asset Market Clearity Act," which could impact the regulatory landscape for digital assets [2] - South Korea is set to implement the second phase of its cryptocurrency open policy, indicating a progressive regulatory approach [2] Group 2 - Overall policy regulation is becoming clearer, which is a long-term positive for the market; however, the Powell incident has created short-term risk aversion and uncertainty [3] - Bitcoin (BTC) is influenced by Federal Reserve speeches and economic data, with persistent inflation or hawkish signals potentially strengthening the dollar and suppressing BTC [3] - The conflict between Trump and Powell increases uncertainty; if the Fed accelerates interest rate cuts, it could push BTC to break the $100,000 mark [3] Group 3 - Institutional caution is reflected in an ETF outflow of approximately $480 million, although the long-term narrative remains strong [3] - Ethereum (ETH) benefits from the Fusaka upgrade, which enhances data capacity and efficiency, with institutional staking and ETF inflows of $25 million providing support [3] - Despite the positive developments, DeFi activity is slowing down, and macro uncertainties (such as a Fed pause) are increasing selling pressure on ETH [3] Group 4 - Current market conditions for BTC and ETH are characterized by consolidation, with fundamentals driven by macro policies and institutional flows [3] - Technical indicators show a neutral to bearish sentiment, but signs of overselling are emerging [3] - Short-term focus should be on Federal Reserve data and economic reports; a dovish stance could lead BTC to retest $95,000 and ETH to rebound to $3,300, while a hawkish stance could increase downside risks [3]