星展银行：预计2026年上半年美联储有望启动一次降息操作

Group 1: Global Market Outlook - The global market is expected to show significant differentiation in 2025, with US stocks continuing to strengthen and reach new highs in the second half of the year, while Hong Kong and A-shares stabilize [1] - DBS Bank maintains a balanced stock-bond allocation principle for 2026, suggesting a 50:50 or 60:40 stock-bond structure, with a focus on US, Hong Kong, and A-share markets [1] - The bank holds a relatively optimistic view on the development prospects of domestic enterprises [1] Group 2: Economic and Policy Insights - DBS Bank predicts a soft landing for the US economy, despite slowing GDP growth and a weak job market, supported by steady profit growth in core industries [1] - A potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is anticipated in the first half of 2026, with short-term balance sheet expansion already initiated in January [1] - The overall policy direction will focus on inflation control, with a target range of 2.5%-3% for stable inflation, which may lead to continued accommodative monetary policy [1] Group 3: Sector Focus - The technology sector is highlighted as a focal point for investment, with solid earnings and sustainable business models, unlike the 2000 internet bubble [2] - The medical sector is also favored, particularly in pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, leveraging AI to reduce R&D costs and improve efficiency, as well as in medical devices due to a significant supply gap [2] - Asian markets are seen as a core destination for diversified investment, with a weakening dollar enhancing the attractiveness of Asian currencies [2] Group 4: Chinese Market and Industry Selection - High-quality Chinese enterprises are viewed as highly attractive, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks becoming core investment targets [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes new productivity, green technology, and innovation, with tech and new economy stocks nearing 50% weight in the MSCI China Index [3] - Investment opportunities are categorized into two tiers: the first tier focuses on technology and new economy sectors with high growth and ROE, while the second tier includes industrial, energy, and financial sectors with solid development foundations [3]