特朗普明示“子弹上膛”，收拾伊朗前，他要先给中国来个下马威？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's announcement of a 25% punitive tariff on all countries engaging in trade with Iran, emphasizing the strategic ambiguity and potential implications for global trade dynamics [1][3][10]. Group 1: Tariff Implications - The punitive tariffs are aimed at countries with "commercial ties" to Iran, creating uncertainty for nations like India and Turkey, which are already managing complex supply chains [5][7]. - This "long-arm jurisdiction" approach simplifies global supply chains into a binary choice, pressuring countries to align with U.S. policies or face tariffs [7][12]. Group 2: U.S.-Iran Trade Dynamics - The significant trade volume between China and Iran is viewed as a challenge to U.S. interests, with the U.S. aiming to disrupt this relationship to reinforce its geopolitical strategy in the Asia-Pacific region [9][10]. - The tariffs could impose hidden costs on Chinese goods, creating a perception that products from China are "tainted" if they are linked to Iranian trade [12][18]. Group 3: Political Context - The timing of the tariff announcement coincides with legal scrutiny over Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, suggesting a strategy to create a "national security crisis" to bolster his authority [14][16]. - The article posits that Trump's aggressive tariff strategy may backfire, leading to a shift away from dollar dependence and the establishment of alternative economic systems among emerging markets [25][27]. Group 4: Global Economic Response - Countries like Iran have developed mechanisms to circumvent U.S. dollar dominance, including expanding the use of the yuan and barter systems, which could insulate them from U.S. sanctions [21][23]. - The article warns that Trump's tariff strategy may inadvertently accelerate the formation of a parallel economic system that excludes U.S. participation, potentially undermining the established international order [25][27].