印度首富被卡脖子，收购中国技术失败，印度制造业升级的美梦碎了

Core Insights - Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries faces a significant setback in its lithium-ion battery cell manufacturing plans due to the inability to secure critical technology licensing from China [1][4][5] - The company's ambition to upgrade India's manufacturing capabilities is challenged by geopolitical factors and stringent technology transfer regulations from China [4][24] Group 1: Business Strategy and Plans - In response to India's goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2070, Reliance announced plans in 2021 to establish four super factories, with a focus on battery cell manufacturing [3][24] - The initial strategy involved a partnership with China's Hithium to acquire mature lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery technology, aiming to leverage market access for technology acquisition [3][4] Group 2: Challenges and Market Reactions - The collaboration with Chinese firms has stalled due to increased scrutiny over technology transfers, leaving Reliance with an incomplete blueprint and unoperational equipment [5][6] - Following the news of the halted project, Reliance's stock price declined, reflecting market skepticism about the viability of India's battery manufacturing without Chinese technology [7][8] Group 3: Alternatives and Limitations - Reliance's internal team explored alternative battery technologies from Japan, South Korea, and Europe, but found them unfeasible due to high costs, which would render them non-competitive in a price-sensitive market [9][11][12] - The competitive edge of Chinese battery production lies not only in technology but also in cost efficiency achieved through supply chain integration, creating a significant barrier for other countries [13][15] Group 4: Strategic Shift - In light of the technology supply challenges, Reliance has shifted its focus from manufacturing battery cells to assembling battery storage systems, which significantly reduces the industrial value added [18][19][20] - This strategic downgrade reflects a broader issue within India's renewable energy sector, where major players like Adani Group and JSW Group are also pivoting to assembly operations due to similar technological constraints [22][23] Group 5: Broader Implications - The setback for Reliance is indicative of the real state of India's manufacturing capabilities and highlights the ongoing dependency on Chinese technology despite significant investments in local production [24][27] - The narrative of India replacing China as the world's factory is challenged by the harsh realities of industrial foundations and technological independence, suggesting a long and arduous journey ahead for India's manufacturing aspirations [27]