商业航天股熄火，但商业航天潮才刚刚开始

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese commercial space industry is transitioning from a phase characterized by "PPT rockets" to a more structured and sustainable business model, driven by the recent IPO guidelines that allow private rocket companies to enter the capital market [2][11]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The commercial space sector is experiencing a "golden window period" as multiple private rocket companies, such as Blue Arrow Aerospace and Star River Dynamics, begin the IPO process [2][11]. - The focus of market attention is shifting from technological breakthroughs to engineering capabilities and cash flow certainty, with investors looking for stable launch frequencies and order visibility [3][11]. - Demand is reversing, with low Earth orbit satellite communications and remote sensing driving rocket production planning, indicating a shift from supply-driven to demand-driven dynamics [7][15]. Group 2: Company Strategies - Star River Dynamics has established a stable launch rhythm with its "Gushenxing" series solid rockets, expanding its applications in commercial remote sensing and low Earth orbit tasks [4]. - Blue Arrow Aerospace is betting on reusable technology with its liquid oxygen-methane engines and medium to large launch vehicles, aiming to emulate SpaceX's early-stage strategies [5]. - Zhongke Aerospace benefits from its affiliation with the Chinese Academy of Sciences, providing stronger certainty in engineering capabilities, while Tianbing Technology emphasizes rapid iteration and engineering efficiency [6]. Group 3: Infrastructure Development - The future of the space industry is increasingly viewed as a foundational infrastructure rather than a series of isolated projects, with stable and predictable launch demand emerging [8][15]. - The global space economy is projected to reach $612 billion by 2024, with commercial space revenue accounting for $480 billion, highlighting the growing importance of the sector [11]. - China's unique advantage lies in its complete supply chain, enabling large-scale domestic manufacturing across various components, which positions it well for future demand surges [15][16]. Group 4: Comparative Analysis - The Chinese model differs from SpaceX's approach by integrating multiple stakeholders, where the state ensures foundational technology and safety, while private companies focus on efficiency and market applications [14]. - The Chinese commercial space sector is not merely about individual company success but is evolving into a national-level industrial infrastructure, contrasting with the concentrated and overvalued U.S. commercial space market [17].