金价克重5年涨幅近200%，市场分化加剧，黄金消费与零售端的冰火两重天

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in gold prices since January 2026, with prices surpassing key thresholds and reaching a peak of $4601.38 per ounce [1] - Over the past five years, gold prices have shown a pattern of "oscillating upward, repeatedly breaking records," with a notable increase of approximately 18% in 2019 and a substantial rise of over 70% in 2025 [3] - The demand for gold bars and coins in China has increased by 17%, with retail gold investment demand reaching 313 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, the highest level since 2013 [4] Group 2 - Despite the booming investment demand for gold, the retail sector for gold jewelry is experiencing a downturn, with a reported retail sales total of 313.1 billion yuan for gold and silver jewelry, reflecting a 14% year-on-year growth [6] - Chow Tai Fook's financial report for 2025 indicates a decline in revenue to 89.656 billion HKD, a drop of 17.5%, and a net profit decrease of 8.98%, alongside a significant reduction in retail points [9] - The gold market is expected to continue its upward trend, with forecasts suggesting a potential increase in gold prices by 15% to 30% in 2026, and a bullish outlook from CITIC Securities predicting prices could exceed $5100 per ounce by the end of 2026 [11]