“饺子第一股”袁记，IPO之路暗藏风险？

Core Viewpoint - Yuanji Food is preparing for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to capitalize on its rapid growth and expansion in the Chinese and Southeast Asian markets, while facing challenges related to management risks, competition, and profitability fluctuations [2][12]. Group 1: Company Growth and Expansion - Yuanji Food has grown from a regional brand in Guangdong to a leading player in the Chinese dumpling and wonton market, with 4,266 stores as of September 30, 2025, up from 3,141 at the end of 2023, marking a significant increase [3][4]. - The company has successfully penetrated approximately 200 cities in Greater China and expanded into overseas markets such as Singapore and Thailand, with a total of 11 overseas stores opened within a year [3][4]. - The number of stores in third-tier cities and below reached 1,121 by September 2025, reflecting a 20.80% increase from the beginning of the year, while first-tier cities saw a modest growth of 1.18% [3][4]. Group 2: Business Model and Operations - Yuanji Food operates primarily through a franchise model, with 95% of its 4,266 stores being franchises, allowing for rapid market penetration while maintaining lower capital expenditure [5]. - The company focuses on backend capabilities, including standardized production through its five factories and a comprehensive cold chain logistics network, ensuring over 86% of stores are within 200 kilometers of a warehouse [5]. - The retail segment, although only contributing 2.64% of total revenue, has seen a 46.48% year-on-year growth in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a new growth avenue [5]. Group 3: Capital and Financing - Prior to its IPO, Yuanji Food completed three rounds of financing, attracting notable investors and achieving a valuation increase of 16.5 times [6][8]. - The company’s valuation rose from 200 million RMB post-A round to 3.5 billion RMB post-B+ round, reflecting strong investor confidence in its growth potential [8][9]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 15.49 times, compared to 19.14 times for Yum China, indicating a competitive valuation in the market [8]. Group 4: Fundraising and Strategic Focus - The IPO proceeds will be allocated towards digitalization, overseas supply chain development, brand building, product research, and operational funding, with a strong emphasis on overseas market expansion and digital upgrades [11]. - The company aims to create a cohesive business presence in Southeast Asia and plans to enter East Asia, Europe, and North America, adapting its offerings to local tastes and pricing strategies [11]. Group 5: Challenges and Risks - The heavy reliance on the franchise model poses management risks, as 95% of stores depend on franchisees for brand image and operational quality [12]. - Profitability stability is a concern, with adjusted net profit showing minimal growth from 1.79 billion RMB in 2023 to 1.80 billion RMB in 2024, and a notable decline in average order GMV from 26.1 RMB in 2023 to 22.8 RMB in 2025 [12]. - The company faces challenges in balancing its presence in first-tier cities with underdeveloped markets and the complexities of localizing its offerings in diverse regions [12][13].