Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance at the beginning of 2026, with a historical high in trading volume and a significant increase in major indices, driven by multiple favorable factors [1][2][4]. Market Performance - As of January 12, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 4.9% since the end of 2025, marking 17 consecutive days of gains, positioning it among the top global markets [1]. - The total trading volume on January 12 reached 3.64 trillion yuan, setting a new historical record [1]. Supporting Factors - Investor optimism for 2026, particularly in the first half, has led to increased capital allocation [2]. - Recent technological advancements in sectors like AI and commercial aerospace have catalyzed market interest, with significant satellite applications submitted to the International Telecommunication Union [2]. - Anticipation of positive earnings reports from A-share companies at the end of January, especially for small and mid-cap stocks, has contributed to market optimism [2]. - The ongoing trend of capital movement from savings to investments has created a positive feedback loop with market performance [2]. - The appreciation of the Chinese yuan, recently reaching 6.96, has also supported market sentiment [2]. Short-term Considerations - The rapid increase in market performance and trading volume necessitates caution regarding potential short-term volatility, as high turnover rates may indicate overheated investor sentiment [3]. - A focus on maintaining market stability and a gradual pace of growth is recommended to attract incremental capital and support long-term market health [3]. Mid-term Outlook - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by the interplay of international order restructuring and domestic industrial innovation [4]. - Recent geopolitical changes and the evolving U.S.-China trade relationship are seen as stabilizing factors for the Chinese market [4]. - The ongoing advancements in AI technology and related sectors are anticipated to sustain high growth and contribute to the revaluation of Chinese assets [4]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors experiencing growth, such as AI technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and energy storage, which are entering a favorable cycle [5]. - Consider opportunities in export-oriented industries, including home appliances and machinery, which are expected to benefit from global demand [5]. - Monitor cyclical sectors like chemicals and renewable energy for potential recovery as supply-demand dynamics improve [5]. - Emphasize high-dividend stocks for long-term investment strategies, leveraging stable cash flows and lower volatility [5]. - Identify sectors likely to report strong annual performance, such as gold and technology, which are benefiting from high demand in AI [5].
中金：多重利好促成强劲“开门红”，但需防范短期波动