“金”光四射！贵金属板块领跑港股

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market's metal and mining sector has shown strong performance since the beginning of 2026, continuing the upward trend from 2025, with significant contributions from gold and copper stocks [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 13, 2026, the Hong Kong metal and mining sector index rose by 1.16%, closing at 3712.044 points [1][2]. - Leading stocks in the sector, such as Zijin Mining, China Gold International, Shandong Gold, and Jiangxi Copper, have seen notable price increases, with Zijin Mining up 2.39% to HKD 40.22 and China Gold International up 7.36% to HKD 179.40 [1][2]. Group 2: Gold and Copper Market Dynamics - Gold stocks are benefiting from their safe-haven status and expectations of interest rate cuts, while copper stocks are gaining from supply shortages and increased industrial demand [5][6]. - On January 12, 2026, spot gold prices reached a historical high of USD 4630.21 per ounce, contributing to the rise in Hong Kong gold stocks [5][6]. Group 3: Price Predictions and Supply-Demand Factors - Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecast for the first half of 2026 from USD 11,525 per ton to USD 12,750 per ton, citing low copper inventories outside the U.S. [6]. - The copper market is experiencing a significant supply-demand imbalance, with projections indicating a global refined copper production of 26.9 million tons in 2026, leading to a market shortfall of 308,000 tons [8]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The strong performance of mining stocks is attributed to rising geopolitical risks, imbalances in commodity supply and demand, and shifts in global monetary policy [7][8]. - Increased geopolitical tensions and trade issues are driving up demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, while industrial metals are supported by robust demand from emerging sectors like electric vehicles and data centers [8][9].