“救日元”重任在财务省肩上？前日本央行官员：加息最快或4月落地

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen continues to weaken due to market concerns over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's fiscal policies, with expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise its benchmark interest rate as early as April [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Former Bank of Japan official Makoto Sakurai suggests that the central bank is unlikely to implement measures to support the yen in its upcoming meetings, placing the responsibility on the Japanese Ministry of Finance if the yen continues to decline [3]. - The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, but this has only prevented further depreciation of the yen without driving its appreciation [3][4]. - Market expectations indicate a 40% probability of a rate hike in April, with the central bank's policy committee likely to raise rates approximately every six months [4]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Economic Stimulus - Takaichi's proposed large-scale economic stimulus and significant budget plans have led to a loss of market confidence, raising questions about the rationale for such expansive fiscal spending amid rising inflation [4][6]. - Since taking office, Takaichi has introduced the largest supplementary budget since the pandemic and set the highest initial budget for the next fiscal year in Japan's history [6]. - While inflation has increased tax revenues to historical highs, concerns remain about the lack of clarity regarding funding sources for Takaichi's spending plans, which are viewed as overly loose and potentially dangerous [7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Currency Implications - The yen is hovering near the intervention threshold set by the Japanese Ministry of Finance for 2024, with its decline beginning last October amid Takaichi's anticipated election and her criticism of the Bank of Japan's rate hikes [5]. - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield reached a historical high of 3.52%, reflecting market skepticism about Takaichi's fiscal policies and their impact on the yen [7]. - Sakurai emphasizes that Takaichi's fiscal measures are a core factor suppressing the yen's value, and rebuilding market trust will be a challenging task [7].