光伏产品物流端抢运潮将至？ 已有工厂取消休假

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government will cancel the VAT export rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, which is expected to increase export costs for solar companies and lead to a rush in shipments before the deadline [1]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The adjustment of the export rebate from 9% to a complete cancellation is anticipated to raise export costs for solar companies, prompting many factories to call back workers from vacation to increase production [1]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association noted that since 2024, the export prices of photovoltaic products have been declining, indicating a "volume increase and price decrease" trend [2]. - The policy change is expected to help stabilize export prices in the long term and reduce the likelihood of trade frictions, although it is not the sole solution to the industry's challenges [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Currently, there has been no increase in booking volumes for photovoltaic products, and companies will need time to react to the new policy, but a surge in shipments is anticipated, which may help the shipping market during the off-peak season [2]. - The Shanghai export container freight index was reported at 1647.39 points, down 0.5% from the previous period, with slight fluctuations in shipping prices for various routes [2]. - Analysts predict a potential surge in shipments post-Chinese New Year, estimating a volume of approximately 9,300 to 12,300 FEU (40-foot standard containers) per month, which is comparable to the capacity of large container ships [3]. Group 3: Shipping Industry Insights - The main contract for the European shipping index (EC2604) saw a significant increase of 11.30%, indicating a positive market response to the anticipated surge in photovoltaic exports due to the rebate policy change [3]. - Shipping companies typically have long-term agreements with major photovoltaic manufacturers, and there is sufficient capacity to accommodate any overflow demand from increased shipments [3]. - Despite the short-term benefits from the expected surge in shipments, analysts warn that the overall export volume of photovoltaic components is likely to decline significantly in the future, putting pressure on long-term shipping rates [4].