Tsai Capital 2025 Investor Letter

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of recognizing the underlying "water" or environment in which companies operate, which often goes unnoticed by investors, leading to misjudgments in company valuations and business durability [6][5][4] - It highlights the concept of "economic castles," where certain companies create powerful competitive advantages and ecosystems that redefine consumer interactions, often resulting in undervaluation by the market [7][14][15] Company Analysis - Amazon (AMZN) is noted for its dual dominance in e-commerce and cloud computing, with Amazon Web Services (AWS) contributing over 50% of its operating profits. The company is expected to grow revenues at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% over the next five years, with earnings per share projected to more than double during that period [47][49][50] - Apple (AAPL) has a robust ecosystem with about 2.4 billion active devices and a growing subscription services segment, which accounted for roughly 42% of total gross profits in fiscal 2025. The company anticipates approximately 10% annual growth in earnings per share over the coming years [51][52][54] - Brookfield Corporation (BN) is recognized as a leading global alternative asset manager with over $180 billion in permanent capital. The company aims for 15%+ annualized total returns for shareholders, driven by strong investment performance and a favorable macro backdrop for real assets [55][57][58] - QXO is in the early stages of consolidating the $800 billion building products distribution industry, having made a significant acquisition of Beacon Roofing Supply for approximately $11 billion. The company expects to double cash flow within four years and achieve over $50 billion in revenue [59][61][63] - Tesla (TSLA) is positioned as a leading AI company with competitive advantages across electric vehicles and energy storage. The company is expected to significantly increase vehicle production and deliveries, with its AI capabilities remaining underestimated [65][68][69] Industry Trends - The article discusses the transformative impact of robotics and autonomous vehicles on labor, urban design, and economies, emphasizing that these technologies are not just tools but extensions of the internet's architecture [23][24][30] - It highlights the importance of understanding network effects, where a product's value increases with each new user, creating self-reinforcing cycles that enhance scalability and competitive dominance [29][30] - The scalability of technology companies often follows a fractal-like pattern, where growth accelerates at higher scales, leading to stark disparities in market capitalization [33][34]