大科技VS价值股！美股财报季来袭，华尔街“轮换交易”迎生死大考

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. stock market is experiencing significant capital rotation from technology giants to traditional sectors such as banks, consumer goods, and materials producers, as investors bet on these sectors benefiting from expected economic acceleration in 2026 [1] Group 1: Technology Sector Performance - Despite the rotation of funds, large technology companies are still expected to be the main drivers of profit growth for the S&P 500 index during the fourth quarter earnings season, with a projected 20% year-over-year profit growth for the tech sector [1] - Bloomberg industry research predicts that the profit growth rate for S&P 500 value stocks will be around 9%, which is only one-third of the expected growth rate for growth stocks, with the tech sector's profit growth expected to reach 30% [2] Group 2: Traditional Sectors Outlook - Traditional economic sectors are showing some positive signs, with industrial companies expected to see a profit growth of 13% and non-essential consumer goods and services companies projected to grow by 12% [2] - Defensive sectors such as healthcare, materials, and essential consumer goods are also expected to have growth rates close to 10%, indicating that some traditional industries can still provide robust profit support alongside tech giants [2] Group 3: Market Rotation Challenges - The current rotation strategy is facing high expectations as the market transitions from tech dominance to traditional sectors, with the Federal Reserve's easing cycle opening new opportunities for economically sensitive industries [3] - Data from Deutsche Bank shows a continued decline in holdings of large-cap growth and tech stocks, while small-cap stock exposure has reached its highest level in nearly a year, indicating a significant shift in investment strategy [3] - The upcoming earnings season is crucial for the 493 companies in the S&P 500 index, excluding the "Tech Seven," as high market expectations set a high performance threshold [3] Group 4: Policy Support for Economic Growth - Piper Sandler's chief investment strategist highlights optimism for cyclical sectors such as transportation, housing, and manufacturing, supported by the Federal Reserve's loose policies, falling oil prices, and relaxed lending standards [4] - These policy combinations are seen as key drivers supporting the profit recovery of non-tech sectors, with investors betting on accelerated economic growth in the U.S. in the first half of 2026, potentially leading to better performance from traditional cyclical industries compared to high-valuation tech stocks [5]