核心通胀降温！美国12月核心CPI涨幅2.6%，持平四年来最低水平，CPI同比上涨2.7%符合预期

Core Insights - The December CPI in the U.S. shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, aligning with expectations and remaining at the lowest level in four years [1] - The core CPI year-on-year growth is 2.6%, slightly below the expected 2.7%, indicating a further slowdown in inflation [2][8] - The overall inflation data is viewed as a convincing signal of cooling inflation, with market reactions indicating increased bets on the Federal Reserve potentially lowering interest rates earlier than anticipated [3][11] Inflation Details - The December core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, which is below the expected 0.3% [2][8] - The structure of inflation shows that while commodity prices remained stable, service and food prices were the main contributors to inflation in December [5] - Housing inflation pressure is significantly easing, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase dropping from 3.3% in November to 3.2% in December [6] Market Reactions - Following the data release, U.S. stock futures rose, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar fell, reflecting market sentiment towards potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - The probability of a rate cut in April is now priced at approximately 42%, up from 38% prior to the data release, although June is still viewed as the most likely timing for a cut [3] Core Inflation Trends - The core CPI's year-on-year growth of 2.6% is the lowest since March 2021, reinforcing the trend of declining inflation [8] - Core goods prices decreased month-on-month, while service prices saw a slight acceleration, with the "super core inflation" metric (excluding housing services) also showing a slowdown to the lowest level since September 2021 [8]