焦炭价格继续下行的空间有限

Group 1 - The recent decline in spot prices for coke has occurred four times within a month, attributed to multiple factors including reduced demand from steel mills and a decrease in iron water production [1] - Steel mills have entered a loss phase since October last year, leading to a 12-week consecutive decline in iron water output, which has weakened the demand for coke [1] - The inventory ratio of coke in steel and coking plants is at a three-year low of 7.03, with large and medium-sized steel mills having only 12.1 days of available coke, which is 1.1 days lower than the same period in 2024 [1] Group 2 - Despite a temporary recovery in coking profits, there has been no significant increase in coke supply, with daily production remaining stable between 620,000 to 650,000 tons and capacity utilization between 71.5% to 73% [2] - The recent decline in coking coal prices has not led to a notable increase in coking coal production, with a decrease of 49,500 tons in daily output reported in the last week of December [2] - There are signs of recovery in daily iron water production, with an increase of 8,800 tons in the last two weeks of December, indicating potential for further growth in iron water output [2]