2026年投资展望报告-在复杂性中寻求催化剂（英文版）-高盛

Core Market Influences - The global investment environment in 2026 will be shaped by central bank policies, trade dynamics, fiscal risks, geopolitical tensions, and advancements in artificial intelligence [1][6] - Central banks in G10 countries have begun to diverge in their monetary policies, with most having cut rates by 2025, while the US Federal Reserve's decisions will depend on labor market conditions [3][24] - The restructuring of trade relationships, particularly between the US and other major economies, is expected to stabilize some markets but may still pose risks to growth due to tariffs and geopolitical tensions [3][25] - Global government debt has surpassed $100 trillion, with significant fiscal pressures on countries like the US and France, complicating the investment landscape [3][26] - Geopolitical risks remain high, particularly with ongoing conflicts and upcoming political events in the US that could influence market sentiment [3][31] Key Investment Catalysts - Easing monetary policies are anticipated to benefit fixed income, small-cap stocks, commercial real estate, and emerging market debt, as lower interest rates reduce financial burdens [3][13] - Continued investment in AI by major tech companies is expected to drive growth in sectors such as semiconductors, software, and data management, expanding investment opportunities beyond leading firms [3][36] - A revival in global M&A activity is projected for 2026, which may increase demand for private equity and private credit, particularly for small-cap companies [3][37] - Increased focus on economic security and energy transition is likely to drive investments in defense, infrastructure, and sustainable energy projects [3][40][41] Public Market Outlook - The US equity market is dominated by a few large tech firms, which account for approximately 40% of the S&P 500's market capitalization, indicating a concentration of market power [3][75][79] - European equities are expected to benefit from increased government spending on infrastructure and defense, with a potential narrowing of the GDP growth gap with the US [3][91] - Japanese equities may see positive momentum due to stable monetary policy and potential fiscal support from the new government, alongside corporate governance reforms [3][93] - Emerging market equities are trading at a significant discount compared to US equities, presenting potential investment opportunities driven by strong corporate earnings and favorable economic conditions [3][95] Private Market Insights - Private equity valuations remain high but are not excessively inflated, with quality assets still in demand, particularly from investment portfolios established between 2018 and 2020 [3][29] - The private credit market shows healthy fundamentals, although some borrowers may face interest coverage challenges, necessitating careful monitoring of credit quality [3][30] - The real estate market is expected to rebound, with increasing differentiation between high-quality and lower-quality assets [3][29]