Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is experiencing a transitional phase where old equilibria are loosening, and new equilibria have yet to stabilize, leading to increased volatility in prices, particularly in silver and other commodities [1][6]. Group 1: Commodity Price Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in silver prices reflect a broader trend where multiple commodities are undergoing significant price changes without a clear, consistent driving factor [1]. - Since 2016, the volatility of major commodity price indices has shown a synchronized increase, particularly around 2020 and 2022, indicating a high level of uncertainty across various commodities [1][2]. - The current state of the commodity market is characterized by simultaneous high uncertainty across different types of commodities, influenced by various underlying factors [1][2]. Group 2: Structural Changes in Demand and Supply - The restructuring of the global manufacturing system, driven by energy transition, digital expansion, and infrastructure updates, has led to resilient demand for certain industrial raw materials [2]. - Traditional investment and real estate-related demand are entering an adjustment phase, revealing structural differentiation in demand [2]. - The supply side has been constrained due to weak capital expenditure in the commodity sector over the past decade, leading to reduced supply elasticity and increased sensitivity to geopolitical and climatic disruptions [4][5]. Group 3: Financial Participation and Pricing Mechanisms - Increased financial participation in commodity markets has altered pricing dynamics, making prices more sensitive to short-term information and leading to more frequent adjustments [3][5]. - The relationship between inventory levels and prices has become unstable, with prices often adjusting through jumps rather than gradual changes, reflecting the complexities introduced by multiple structural changes [5][6]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Implications - The current pricing behavior of commodities mirrors the broader macroeconomic environment, where traditional growth models are losing effectiveness, and new technologies and policies are reshaping demand and cost structures [6][7]. - The high frequency of price adjustments indicates that the market is continuously recalibrating its expectations in response to new information, reflecting a transitional phase in the global economy [6][8]. - The ongoing volatility in commodity prices serves as a micro-level representation of the macroeconomic shifts, highlighting the need for dynamic coordination in forming macroeconomic equilibria [7][8].
银价震荡曲线揭示 全球变局进行时
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-13 16:19