巴基斯坦对华PTA作出反倾销肯定性初裁 出口长期可控 企业应巩固成本竞争力

Core Viewpoint - The Pakistan National Tariff Commission has issued a preliminary anti-dumping ruling on PTA from China, imposing a temporary anti-dumping tax for four months, which is expected to cause short-term disruptions in PTA exports but has manageable long-term impacts [1] Group 1: Preliminary Ruling Details - The preliminary ruling specifies different anti-dumping tax rates for various Chinese companies: 2.63% for Zhuhai Yingli Chemical Co., Ltd. and its Hong Kong exporters, and 9.50% for Zhejiang Dushan Energy Co., Ltd. and all other Chinese producers and exporters [1] - The ruling exempts PTA used for raw materials in exports and foreign aid projects from the temporary anti-dumping measures [1] Group 2: Export Trends and Market Impact - PTA is a key organic raw material, with over 90% used in producing PET, serving multiple sectors like textiles and packaging [1] - Since 2021, China's PTA export volume has been increasing, but a significant slowdown is expected in 2025, with a projected decline of 17% year-on-year [1] - The decline in exports is attributed to overseas capacity impacts and trade restrictions, particularly from Turkey and India, leading to a shift in export focus towards countries like Pakistan [2] Group 3: Industry Insights and Future Outlook - Analysts believe the actual impact of the ruling is minimal, as China's PTA exports to Pakistan represent only 0.4% of its annual production capacity [2] - The ruling may trigger a "rush to export" in the short term, but could also lead to a restructuring of PTA trade flows, with Pakistan potentially turning to Thailand for imports [2] - The core pressure on China's PTA exports in 2026 will stem from local capacity expansions in major importing countries, which could limit export opportunities [3] - The overall supply-demand balance for PTA in China is expected to remain healthy, but new overseas production capacities may weaken export growth expectations [4] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Domestic PTA companies are advised to leverage their integrated supply chain advantages to enhance cost competitiveness and diversify export markets to mitigate risks [5] - Continuous monitoring of the final ruling in Pakistan and global trade barriers is essential for adapting to competitive challenges [5]