美12月CPI什么信号？华尔街对本月降息不报期望，“新美联储通讯社”称联储观望态度不大可能变

Core Insights - The December core CPI growth rate was below Wall Street expectations, marking the lowest year-on-year growth in nearly five years, indicating a potential easing of price pressures [1][5] - Market analysts believe that while this data provides a clearer signal of declining inflation, it is insufficient to prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in the upcoming meeting [3][7] Inflation Data Summary - The December core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the consensus expectation of 0.3%, and year-on-year growth was 2.6%, matching the lowest level since March 2021 [5] - The overall CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with economists' forecasts [5] - Housing costs were the largest contributor to the overall CPI increase, rising by 0.4% month-on-month, the highest increase in four months [5] Price Trends - Declines in automobile and furniture prices helped offset the rise in housing costs, with used car prices dropping by 1.1% month-on-month [6] - Food prices increased by 0.7% month-on-month, the largest rise since 2022, while recreational prices surged by 1.2%, marking a record high [6] - Core goods prices remained stagnant, indicating that tariff impacts on consumers were milder than expected [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the upcoming January meeting, with market expectations for a rate hold exceeding 97% [4][7] - There is a need for more evidence of a weakening labor market or declining price pressures before the Fed considers rate cuts [3][7] - The "super core" CPI, which excludes housing and energy costs, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year rate of 2.7%, down from approximately 4% a year ago [8]