中国给了你机会，你却去求日本？有冯德莱恩在，欧洲不亡天理难容

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has shifted its focus from negotiating with China on rare earth issues to engaging with Japan, indicating a lack of optimism regarding substantial concessions from China [1][3]. Group 1: EU's Strategy and Negotiation Dynamics - EU leaders, under Ursula von der Leyen, have prioritized talks with Japan before visiting China, signaling a strategic approach to enhance their bargaining position [1][3]. - The EU's collaboration with Japan is framed as "strategic cooperation," emphasizing "economic security," "critical raw materials," and "supply chain resilience," with rare earths formally included in the political discourse [3][5]. - The EU's understanding of rare earths remains superficial, focusing on mining rather than refining, which is crucial for reducing dependency on China [5][7]. Group 2: China's Dominance in Rare Earths - China's strength lies not in resource availability but in its comprehensive industrial chain, which includes mining, refining, and downstream manufacturing, developed over decades [7][9]. - The EU's avoidance of reality regarding China's dominance is evident, as exemplified by the Caremag project in France, which has limited capacity and relies on Japanese investment [7][9]. - Japan's own rare earth projects are still in experimental stages, indicating a long path to commercialization and limited immediate impact on global supply [9][11]. Group 3: Implications for European Industry - The rising prices of rare earths will primarily impact European manufacturing sectors, particularly automotive and renewable energy, potentially leading to a loss of market share due to increased costs [15][17]. - Germany, as a major manufacturing nation, faces significant challenges due to its high dependency on rare earths, highlighting the industrial implications of the EU's political stance [15][17]. - The current global supply chain for rare earths shows no signs of "de-China-ization," with technological and efficiency advantages still concentrated in China [17][19].