BEIJING AIRPORT(HK:00694) Ge Long Hui·2026-01-13 21:58Company Overview - The company recently released its operational data for the full year of 2025, indicating a slight underperformance compared to national passenger growth rates [1] - The company reported a 5.0% year-on-year increase in passenger traffic for 2025, with domestic traffic remaining stable and international traffic growing by 11%, while the overall Chinese civil aviation industry saw a 5.5% increase [1] New Duty-Free Contract - A new duty-free contract has been established, introducing dual duty-free operators; the static rental levels are higher than the previous contract, with a focus on the "minimum guarantee + commission" model to enhance sales [2] - The new contract, effective from February 11, 2026, or the later of the transfer date, will last until February 10, 2034, with China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing winning bids for T3 and T2 terminals respectively [2] - The first-year minimum guarantee is set at 590 million yuan, up from 560 million yuan in the previous contract, with a sales commission starting at 5% and increasing by 1 percentage point each year until the fifth billing year [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to -308 million yuan and 122 million yuan respectively, primarily due to lowered passenger growth assumptions; a new profit forecast for 2027 of 458 million yuan has been introduced, assuming a 5% year-on-year passenger growth and a high single-digit increase in duty-free average transaction value [2] - The current stock price corresponds to 0.8 times the 2026 price-to-book ratio, with a target price maintained at 2.9 HKD, indicating a 10% upside potential from the current stock price, while maintaining an outperform rating [2]