日元套息交易退潮在即？或引发资金回流冲击美国资产

Group 1 - A significant potential risk is accumulating in the Asian market as Japan's new Prime Minister, Sanna Takashi, is considering an early election to strengthen her party's control, which may lead to aggressive fiscal spending policies [1] - The annual budget for Japan is projected to reach approximately 122.3 trillion yen (about 783 billion USD), raising concerns about fiscal deficits and debt financing pressures [1] - The Japanese yen has weakened significantly, trading at 158.91 against the USD, marking a nearly 13% depreciation over the past eight months [1] Group 2 - The Japanese stock market has reacted positively to Takashi's pro-business stance, with the Nikkei 225 index rising nearly 9% since her election, reaching a historical high of 53,549 points [2] - There is a divergence between the government's fiscal expansion stance and the Bank of Japan's tightening policy, which adds pressure on the yen [2] - The Japanese Finance Minister has communicated concerns about the yen's depreciation with the U.S. Treasury Secretary, who acknowledged these worries [2] Group 3 - The attractiveness of the yen carry trade is diminishing due to rising Japanese government bond yields and narrowing interest rate differentials between Japan and the U.S. [3] - A potential intervention by the Japanese Finance Ministry could lead to a rapid market correction, triggering concentrated sell-offs in other asset markets [3] - The scale of the yen carry trade is estimated to be between 1.3 trillion to 1.7 trillion USD, posing significant risks to investors [3]