法国经济逐步回暖

Economic Growth Outlook - France's economic growth is projected to be 0.9% in 2025 and 1% in 2026, with a notable acceleration in GDP growth of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, indicating enhanced economic momentum [1] - The recovery in the French economy is attributed to multiple factors, including improved economic momentum in the second half of 2025, stabilization in investment, and better-than-expected industrial recovery [1] Sector Performance - The aerospace sector's easing supply constraints contributed to a 1.3% quarter-on-quarter increase in manufacturing output, while manufacturing exports rose by 4.8% and corporate investments increased by 0.8% [1] - The monthly business survey by the Bank of France indicates continued improvement in economic activity, particularly in the industrial sector, with key indicators remaining above long-term averages for six consecutive months [2] Inflation and Consumer Power - As of November 2025, France's inflation rate increased by 0.9% year-on-year, remaining relatively low within the Eurozone, which supports consumer purchasing power and provides a predictable environment for businesses [1] - The stability in industrial sales prices and a slight increase in service prices were noted, with 8% of industrial firms reporting significant supply difficulties and 16% facing recruitment challenges, both showing a decrease from previous levels [2] Structural Challenges - Despite improved growth prospects, France's economy faces structural pressures, with public debt reaching €348.22 billion, accounting for 117.4% of GDP, and a projected fiscal deficit of 5.5% of GDP for 2025, significantly above the EU's 3% limit [3] - The French parliament has not yet formally approved the 2026 budget, leading the government to propose a "special law" to continue taxation and borrowing, which is crucial for maintaining normal operations of state institutions [3]