六大经济部委释放2026关键信号

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing economic growth, expanding domestic demand, supporting technological innovation, and stabilizing the real estate and stock markets as it prepares for the economic goals of 2026, the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2]. Economic Policy Initiatives - Various ministries are implementing proactive macroeconomic policies, including enhancing economic monitoring, improving policy tools, and ensuring effective fiscal and monetary policy coordination [2]. - The fiscal policy for 2026 will be more active, with an expanded fiscal spending plan and optimized government bond tools to enhance local financial capabilities [2][3]. - The People's Bank of China will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, with expectations of a 25-50 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio [2][3]. GDP and Fiscal Projections - The GDP growth target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, with a fiscal deficit rate holding steady at 4% and an increase in special bonds to 4.8 trillion yuan [3][4]. - The broad deficit scale is projected to rise from 11.86 trillion yuan in 2025 to approximately 12.45 trillion yuan in 2026, corresponding to a broad deficit rate increase from 8.4% to 8.5% [3]. Consumer and Investment Stimulus - The government aims to boost consumption through practical measures, including optimizing the trade-in policy for consumer goods and expanding service consumption [5][6]. - Investment will be supported through various government funding initiatives, including the issuance of special bonds and increased central budget investments [5][6]. Real Estate and Stock Market Stability - Policies will focus on stabilizing the real estate market through targeted measures, including optimizing housing purchase policies and promoting the use of existing housing for social needs [12]. - The central bank will work on mitigating financial risks in key areas and enhancing market confidence through specific monetary policy tools [13]. Emerging Industry Development - There is a strong emphasis on fostering new and emerging industries, including integrated circuits, new materials, and artificial intelligence, with significant investments planned in these sectors [8][9]. - The establishment of the National Venture Capital Guiding Fund aims to attract substantial investment in high-tech fields, with an expected total investment scale exceeding one trillion yuan [9]. Innovation-Driven Growth - The focus for 2026 will be on building an innovation-driven growth model, enhancing the modern industrial system, and promoting technological self-reliance [10].