黄金上涨背后的全球货币体系变革丨孙立坚专栏

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international gold prices, despite seeming irrational, is a result of multiple long-term structural forces converging, indicating a profound structural shift in the gold market [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The traditional pricing model for gold, which suggests that prices are primarily determined by inflation expectations or the real interest rate of the dollar, has failed multiple times since 2022, particularly during periods of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [2][3] - Central banks have emerged as "steadfast buyers," maintaining annual net gold purchases at historically high levels since 2022, reflecting strategic asset reallocation rather than short-term speculation [2][3] Group 2: Structural Changes in the Monetary System - The rise in gold purchases by central banks is closely linked to a "quiet earthquake" in the current international monetary system, facing structural challenges due to intensified great power competition and strategies like "de-risking" and "friend-shoring" [3] - Gold is viewed as a reserve asset with no counterparty risk, making it an ideal foundation for a "de-dollarized" reserve system, representing a natural evolution from a unipolar to a multipolar or "block" reserve system [3][4] Group 3: Buyer Characteristics - The gold market has differentiated into three distinct types of "steadfast buyers": 1. Central banks, especially from emerging economies, which purchase gold as a non-price elastic reserve asset [4][5] 2. Institutional investors, such as sovereign wealth funds and family offices, that allocate a fixed proportion of their portfolios to non-correlated assets or disaster hedges [5] 3. New marginal buyers, including private companies issuing stablecoins, which buy and hold substantial amounts of physical gold to support their stablecoin values [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of gold prices will be deeply intertwined with the evolution of the international monetary system, where the relative decline of the dollar will see gold, major sovereign currencies, and Special Drawing Rights (SDR) collectively serving as reserve assets [6] - Investors must adopt a broader analytical framework that includes geopolitical risk assessments, global debt sustainability analysis, and the degree of coordination (or lack thereof) in major economies' monetary policies [6] - The recent record highs in gold prices reflect not just numerical fluctuations but a rebalancing of global monetary power, indicating that the current dynamics in the gold market transcend simple trading strategies and are shaping the future of the international financial order [6]