相比鲍威尔“收传票”，下周这场庭审对美联储独立性“更加重要”，对市场“意义重大”

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Supreme Court hearing on January 21 regarding the case against Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is expected to have significant implications for the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for political influence over monetary policy [1][3]. Group 1: Legal Implications - The Supreme Court will hear arguments about whether the President can remove Federal Reserve officials "for cause," which could set a critical legal precedent affecting the structure of the Federal Reserve [1][5]. - If the court rules against Cook, it could increase the likelihood of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell being removed due to the ongoing investigation by the Department of Justice [1][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Financial markets have reacted to the developments, with traders betting that the Federal Reserve will not take action in its upcoming policy meeting, pushing expectations for the next rate cut to June [2]. - The market has shown a clear directional response, with declines in the dollar, stock market, and bonds, indicating how the market may digest this long-term risk if the situation escalates [2]. Group 3: Structural Risks - The potential outcome of the Cook case could lead to a Federal Reserve composed of more dovish members, which may not respond appropriately to economic cycles, resulting in severe structural costs for the market [6]. - If the court supports the President's ability to dismiss Cook, it could lead to a broader erosion of checks on executive power, impacting the Federal Reserve's independence [5][6]. Group 4: Powell's Position - Powell may decide to remain on the Federal Reserve Board beyond his term as Chair, which ends in May, as a response to the pressure from the Trump administration [7]. - The probability of Powell continuing to serve on the Federal Reserve Board after his Chair term has increased to over 55%, reflecting a shift in market expectations regarding his departure [7].