浦发银行(600000)：利润保持两位数增长 资产质量持续改善

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (SPDB) is expected to achieve a small single-digit revenue growth in 2025, while maintaining a double-digit profit growth, aligning with expectations. The company focuses on "five major tracks," leveraging regional advantages for strong growth momentum. The optimization of asset-liability structure and the reduction of deposit benchmark interest rates have stabilized the interest margin trend. The bank has effectively controlled incremental risks, leading to a continuous decrease in non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and solidifying its risk compensation capacity. With the completion of the conversion of SPDB convertible bonds, the capital shortfall has been addressed, further opening up future development space [1]. Revenue and Profit Performance - In the performance report for 2025, SPDB achieved an operating income of 173.964 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% (9M25: 1.9%). The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 50.017 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5% (9M25: 10.2%). The NPL ratio for Q4 2025 was 1.26%, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3 basis points, while the provision coverage ratio increased by 2.7 percentage points to 200.72% [2]. Growth Strategy and Capital Structure - The company has completed its management transition and is now focused on five major tracks: technology finance, supply chain finance, inclusive finance, cross-border finance, and financial asset management. This strategy aims to leverage regional advantages and traditional corporate business strengths. Following the completion of the SPDB convertible bond conversion, the capital shortfall has been addressed, providing ample space and motivation for expansion. On the liability side, the bank is diversifying high-quality funding sources while effectively managing costs, resulting in a significant reduction in interest expenses [3][4]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - SPDB has maintained a dual approach of controlling new risks while reducing existing ones, intensifying efforts to dispose of non-performing assets. The NPL ratio for Q4 2025 was 1.26%, marking a continuous decline for ten consecutive quarters since Q3 2023, down 109 basis points from the peak of 2.35% in Q3 2017. The provision coverage ratio increased to 200.72%, enhancing the bank's risk compensation capacity. Looking ahead to 2026, the real estate and retail risks are expected to remain industry-wide concerns, necessitating ongoing attention [5]. Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The bank's strategic transformation towards digitalization and the focus on five major tracks are expected to drive revenue and performance positively. Revenue growth rates are projected at 3.2% and 4.3% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, with profit growth rates of 10.1% and 10.3%. The current stock price corresponds to a 3.4% dividend yield for 2025, which remains attractive compared to government bond yields, and the valuation is supported by the economic recovery expectations despite market sentiment being subdued. A buy rating is maintained [6][7].