美联储降息预期生变! SOFR交易风向转鹰 资金押注美联储全年按兵不动

Core Viewpoint - Increasingly, traders focused on options are shifting away from expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, betting instead that rates will remain unchanged throughout the year, which could yield positive returns if realized [1][2][3]. Group 1: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The December non-farm payroll data showed a modest increase of 50,000 jobs, slightly below economists' expectations of 60,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped from a revised 4.6% in November to 4.4%, indicating a recovery in the labor market [3][5]. - The Challenger, Gray & Christmas report indicated that U.S. companies announced 35,553 job cuts in December, the lowest level since July 2024, alongside plans to add approximately 10,500 new positions, exceeding market expectations [5]. - The ADP Research data also suggested a mild expansion in the job market, with an increase of 41,000 jobs in December, following a significant decline in the previous month [5]. Group 2: Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a steady decline but remains above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, reducing the urgency for further rate cuts [3][6]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicated that traders have reduced their expectations for rate cuts in 2026 from three to two, with the first anticipated cut now pushed to June instead of March [2][3]. - The overall sentiment in the market is shifting towards the possibility of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged throughout 2026, as the labor market stabilizes and inflation remains persistent [2][3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trading Strategies - Recent trading activity in SOFR options reflects a more hawkish sentiment, with significant demand for options hedging against the possibility of delayed rate cuts [10][17]. - The concentration of put options at the 96.375 strike price indicates that traders are positioning themselves for a scenario where rates remain high or do not decline further, suggesting a shift in market expectations towards maintaining current rates [17][20]. - The overall structure of SOFR options indicates that traders are increasingly abandoning expectations of significant rate cuts this year, favoring a more prolonged period of stable rates [20][21].