新世纪期货：螺纹钢宽幅震荡为主

Group 1 - After the New Year holiday, the steel market is resuming production, with rebar supply pressure expected to rise quickly, while apparent demand continues to decline to near five-year lows, exacerbating supply-demand conflicts in the industry [1] - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see a rebound in crude steel production, with the central bank signaling a focus on promoting high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, potentially implementing about two interest rate cuts and one to two reserve requirement ratio cuts [2][3] - The steel industry is experiencing a structural contraction, with crude steel production in 2025 from January to November at 89.167 million tons, down 4.0% year-on-year, while steel production increased by 4.0% [2] Group 2 - Steel production has entered a recovery phase, with total production of five major steel varieties increasing by 34,100 tons week-on-week to 8.1859 million tons, indicating a gradual transition towards a moderately loose supply [3] - The demand side remains under significant pressure, with fixed asset investment showing three consecutive months of negative growth, and real estate development investment down 15.9% year-on-year [3] - The current steel market is characterized by a conflict between strong expectations and weak realities, with macroeconomic easing expectations and real estate financing support creating upward pressure, while weak investment, particularly in real estate, continues to suppress steel prices [3] Group 3 - The inventory of major steel products has recently increased after a 12-week decline, with total inventory rising by 217,700 tons to 12.5392 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.74% [4] - The construction materials market has seen a significant reduction in inventory, but plate inventory remains high due to weak demand, indicating a slower pace of destocking compared to construction materials [4] - As steel mills gradually resume production, inventory is expected to continue rising, with the peak potentially occurring earlier than expected due to the late Spring Festival and prolonged off-season [4] Group 4 - Looking ahead, the rebar market faces weakening supply and demand, with significant upward pressure remaining, primarily supported by mild recovery in exports and manufacturing, while the real estate and infrastructure sectors are unlikely to exceed expectations [5] - The market dynamics before the Spring Festival will be driven by macro expectations and cost support, while post-festival trends will depend on demand signals [5]