美国对伊朗持续施压，“断供”风险推涨油价，利好油服行业

Group 1 - The U.S. government announced a 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran, indicating heightened geopolitical tensions [1] - The International Energy Agency predicts a global oil supply surplus of 3.84 million barrels per day by 2026, leading to a systemic decline in oil prices [1] - If U.S.-Iran conflict escalates, Iranian oil exports may be disrupted, exacerbating global supply tightness [1] Group 2 - Approximately 13 million barrels of oil are transported daily through the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for about 31% of global maritime oil transport [2] - Concerns over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could increase oil prices by several dollars, with a complete closure potentially raising prices by $10 to $20 per barrel [2] - If the conflict leads to a complete halt of Iranian oil exports, a global supply gap of over 2 million barrels per day could occur, potentially driving Brent crude prices to $90-100 per barrel if sustained for six months [2] Group 3 - The geopolitical conflict is expected to boost oil price expectations, leading to increased exploration and development spending by oil and gas companies, which directly benefits oil service equipment demand [2]