供需错配下的新蓝海：新兴城市消费上涌与一线品牌“双向奔赴”

Core Insights - Hema's CEO announced that the company expects a revenue growth rate exceeding 40% by 2025, with its annual GMV projected to surpass 100 billion yuan [1] - The growth is driven by Hema's expansion into 40 emerging cities, achieving high initial sales performance in these locations [1] - Other brands like Starbucks and Lululemon are also accelerating their presence in non-first-tier cities, indicating a broader market shift [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - There is a significant shift in China's urban development, with a reversal of the traditional trend of population influx into first-tier cities, leading to increased consumer activity in emerging cities [3] - The 2024 migration index for second-tier cities and above shows a decline, with more individuals choosing to stay in their hometowns for work [3] - Over 130 cities are projected to experience net population growth by the end of 2025, with 17 of the top 30 cities being second-tier or below [3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The influx of new residents, including internet professionals and entrepreneurs, is driving higher income levels and consumer willingness in emerging cities [5] - The fast-moving consumer goods market is stabilizing, with three to five-tier cities contributing 80% of the market's growth [5] - A significant majority of non-first-tier cities reported positive retail sales growth, with many third-tier cities exceeding the national average [5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Mismatch - Despite rising consumer demand, the supply chain in emerging cities has not kept pace, leading to a mismatch [7] - Consumers face challenges in accessing high-quality products, as local supermarkets primarily offer traditional goods [7] - The lack of modern retail experiences in emerging cities limits consumer engagement and frequency of purchases [7][9] Group 4: Brand Strategies - Major brands are capitalizing on the supply-demand gap by expanding into emerging cities, offering established product lines and service models [10] - Hema's strategy includes leveraging a national supply chain to provide high-quality products directly to consumers in these cities [12] - Other brands, such as Haidilao and Luckin Coffee, are also expanding their presence in lower-tier cities, indicating a trend towards market saturation in these areas [12][14] Group 5: Future Outlook - Emerging cities are becoming essential markets for brands, transitioning from experimental zones to critical battlegrounds for growth [14] - There is significant potential for continued consumer growth in these areas, necessitating brands to tailor their offerings to local demands [14] - The development of local policies and infrastructure will be crucial in unlocking the full consumer potential in emerging cities [14]