中国银河证券：2026年以旧换新政策落地 预计乘用车1月销量会平滑过渡

Core Viewpoint - The passenger car market in December shows significant divergence, with the implementation of the 2026 vehicle trade-in policy expected to benefit the mid-to-high-end market segment [1][3] Market Performance - In December, retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.261 million units, down 14.0% year-on-year but up 1.6% month-on-month; wholesale sales were 2.789 million units, down 9.0% year-on-year and down 7.0% month-on-month [2] - The overall industry inventory decreased by 60,000 units in December, indicating cautious market conditions prompting dealers to actively reduce inventory [2] - The retail penetration rate for new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 59.1%, up 9.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the wholesale penetration rate was 56.0%, up 6.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] Policy Impact - The 2026 vehicle trade-in policy introduces a proportional subsidy that favors the 150,000 to 200,000 price segment, which is expected to improve the sales structure of new vehicles [3] - The new policy will provide subsidies of 12% (up to 20,000 yuan) for NEVs and 8% (up to 15,000 yuan) for fuel vehicles, with the overall funding for the 2026 policy set at 625 billion yuan, a reduction compared to the previous year's 3 trillion yuan [3] Future Outlook - The consumer purchasing sentiment is expected to stabilize in January 2026 due to the early implementation of the trade-in policy and the backlog of year-end orders [4] - The market is anticipated to experience a smooth transition in sales as the new policy is expected to mitigate price wars and internal competition [4] Sector Performance - In the recent bi-weekly review, the performance of various sectors showed increases, with parts (+7.24%), commercial vehicles (+2.80%), and passenger vehicles (+2.08%) leading the gains [5] - Valuation metrics indicate that the price-to-earnings ratios for sales and services, parts, motorcycles, passenger vehicles, and commercial vehicles are 36.18x, 33.83x, 26.73x, 22.74x, and 16.73x respectively [5]