现货白银大涨超2%！地缘局势提振油价 特朗普称已取消所有与伊朗官员的会谈！

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 398.21 points, a decrease of 0.80%, while the Nasdaq dropped by 0.1% and the S&P 500 declined by 0.19% [1] - Bank stocks experienced a widespread decline, with the KBW Bank Index down by 1.3% and JPMorgan Chase falling by 4.2% [1] - Technology stocks showed mixed results, with Intel rising over 7% to reach a nearly two-year high, while AMD increased by over 6%. However, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft all fell by more than 1% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped by 1.86%, with notable declines in Pinduoduo (over 5%), NIO and Xpeng (over 3%), and JD.com and Li Auto (over 1%) [1] Commodity Market - The FTSE China A50 Index futures closed down by 0.01% at 15,398 points [2] - Crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 2.90%, closing at 450.40 RMB per barrel [2] - Spot silver increased by 2.11%, reaching $86.92, with an intraday surge exceeding 4% [3] - Both New York and Brent crude oil prices rose by over 2% [5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with a core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 2.6% [8] - The U.S. government recorded a fiscal deficit of $145 billion in December 2025, a 67% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high for that month [8] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley noted that the December inflation data may contain "technical noise" due to the previous government shutdown, potentially affecting its predictive value for future Federal Reserve policy [8] - The market currently anticipates a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting [8] Federal Reserve Outlook - St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem indicated that inflation-related risks are diminishing, and he expects prices to align more closely with the Fed's target later this year [9] - Musalem stated that current monetary policy is appropriately positioned to address risks related to both price stability and employment [9] - Investors believe the likelihood of a rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting is low, but anticipate two rate cuts in 2026, each by 25 basis points [9] Venezuela Market Developments - Following significant political changes in Venezuela, the country's benchmark stock index surged over 130% since January 3, driven by expectations of economic recovery and U.S. government proposals for oil revitalization [9][10] - The U.S. White House has requested major oil companies to invest in Venezuela to restore its oil extraction infrastructure [10] - Teucrium, an ETF issuer, has applied to establish what is believed to be the first ETF focused on companies with exposure to Venezuela, indicating a potential opening for global capital into this previously closed market [10]