2026年险资举牌热度能否延续?

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, insurance capital's shareholding activities reached a record high of 35 times, driven by regulatory encouragement, the pursuit of higher returns in a low-interest environment, and new accounting standards that help smooth profit fluctuations [1][4]. Group 1: Characteristics of Insurance Capital Shareholding - The number of shareholding activities by insurance capital in 2025 significantly exceeded the average level of recent years, marking the most active year since 2015 [2]. - A total of 14 insurance institutions participated in shareholding activities, including major listed insurance companies, bank-affiliated insurers, and Sino-foreign joint ventures, with Ping An Life being the most active, conducting 12 shareholdings [2]. - Approximately 80% of the shareholding activities were executed through the Hong Kong Stock Connect or continuous purchases in the secondary market, with other methods including agreement transfers and passive shareholding due to mergers [2]. Group 2: Strategic Logic Behind Shareholding - Insurance capital's shareholding activities were not random but followed a clear strategic logic, with a preference for the financial sector, which saw 15 shareholdings involving six banks and two insurance institutions [3]. - Other favored sectors included public utilities, transportation, and environmental protection, indicating a focus on stable, cash-generating industries [3]. - The core demand of insurance capital is for long-term, stable returns, leading to an increased allocation to equity assets as traditional fixed-income returns fail to cover liability costs [3]. Group 3: Factors Driving Shareholding Activities - Regulatory policies have encouraged long-term capital to enter the market, with measures such as increasing the investment limit for insurance companies in equity assets to 50% [4]. - Insurance institutions are responding to downward pressure on interest rates by increasing their allocation to equity assets to enhance long-term investment returns [4]. - New accounting standards impose higher requirements for asset-liability matching, allowing insurance companies to reduce the impact of market value fluctuations on current profits through shareholding [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Insurance Capital Shareholding - There is optimism that insurance capital will continue to increase equity asset allocations in 2026, with expectations of maintaining high shareholding activity levels [8]. - Analysts suggest that insurance capital's shareholding motivations will focus on stable dividend cash flows and high return on equity (ROE) targets, particularly in sectors aligned with national strategic directions such as high-end manufacturing and technological innovation [8].