[Table_Title] 中国平安(601318.SH/02318.HK) 再次举牌优质寿险公司，权益投资持续加码 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Page] 跟踪研究|保险Ⅱ 证券研究报告 | [Table_Invest] 公司评级 | 买入-A/买入-H | | --- | --- | | 当前价格 | 62.08 元/64.05 港元 | | 合理价值 | 83.17 元/84.01 港元 | | 前次评级 | 买入/买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-03-06 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]刘淇 SAC 执证号：S0260520060001 0755-82564292 liuqi@gf.com.cn 分析师： 陈福 SAC 执证号：S0260517050001 SFC CE No. BOB667 0755-82535901 chenfu@gf.com.cn 分析师： 唐关勇 SAC 执证号：S0260525070004 021-38003812 tangguanyong@gf.com.cn 请注意，刘淇,唐关勇 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic outlook and government policies impacting various sectors, particularly focusing on the construction, energy, and real estate industries. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth Target**: The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5.0%, aligning with expectations. However, there is a notable gap in fiscal spending versus debt increase, necessitating reliance on tax revenue recovery and central government support for local tax sources [1][2][3]. 2. **Dual Carbon Policy**: The dual carbon policy has shifted from "energy consumption control" to "carbon emission control," enhancing quantitative constraints. This is expected to benefit sectors like carbon accounting software, carbon trading, smart grids, and hydrogen energy [1][4]. 3. **Coal Sector Outlook**: The coal sector is viewed as having a "second growth curve," driven by AI-related electricity demand growth, which offsets dual carbon pressures. Domestic and import supply reductions are anticipated, with coal prices expected to rise from a bottoming phase, suggesting over 50% upside potential for coal stocks [1][20][21]. 4. **Debt Market Expectations**: The bond market has already priced in the subdued fiscal expectations, with a short-term forecast for 10-year government bond yields to retreat to 1.85%-1.9%. There remains room for interest rate cuts throughout the year [1][12][14]. 5. **Construction and Building Materials**: The focus is on major projects under the "15th Five-Year Plan," with significant investment opportunities in western development, major canals, and high-standard farmland construction. The construction materials sector is nearing a profitability inflection point, with leading companies like Oriental Yuhong expected to benefit [1][22][26]. 6. **Consumer Sector Trends**: Consumer spending is expected to show a "high-low" rhythm, with potential weakness in Q2. Opportunities in high-end travel and service consumption are highlighted, particularly with the expansion of spring break trials [2][15]. 7. **Investment Directions**: The report emphasizes investment in new infrastructure, urbanization, and livelihood improvements, with a focus on projects like major railways and hydropower. The total investment in these areas is projected to exceed 8 trillion yuan [22][24]. 8. **Real Estate Policy Changes**: The real estate sector's focus has shifted from risk prevention to stabilizing the market, with a new emphasis on a "people-centered" approach. The reform of housing provident funds is highlighted as a key support mechanism [27][30][31]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Tax Revenue Recovery**: The anticipated recovery in tax revenue due to price increases and economic expansion is crucial for addressing the fiscal gap [2][3]. 2. **AI and Energy Demand**: The demand for coal is expected to increase due to AI-driven electricity needs, indicating a shift in energy consumption patterns [20]. 3. **Urban Renewal Initiatives**: The report outlines significant urban renewal projects, with a focus on old neighborhood renovations and infrastructure safety, potentially driving demand for construction materials [23][34]. 4. **Green Energy Initiatives**: The introduction of "green fuels" and a multi-energy approach is noted, with major state-owned enterprises involved in clean energy projects [24]. 5. **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment reflects cautious optimism, with expectations for gradual recovery in various sectors, particularly in construction and real estate [1][10][12]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic environment and sector-specific developments that may influence investment strategies moving forward.

Core Insights - Ping An Insurance has coordinated efforts to assist corporate clients in evacuating from conflict zones in the Middle East due to escalating tensions [1] Group 1: Evacuation and Support Efforts - The Group issued 59 risk warnings and 23 risk analysis reports while handling 52 customer inquiries related to the situation in the Middle East [1] - Two employees of corporate clients were safely evacuated from high-risk areas within 24 hours [1] - Ping An has been monitoring customer situations in high-risk regions and is prepared to deploy global resources for emergency needs [1] Group 2: Risk Management and Advisory - On January 12, Ping An issued a high-risk advisory and began providing timely alerts to customers in the Middle East [1] - The Group conducted thorough risk assessments and prepared evacuation resources to ensure rapid support [1] Group 3: Company Overview - Ping An is one of the largest financial services companies globally, with over RMB 12 trillion in total assets as of December 2024 [1] - The Group ranked 27th in the Forbes Global 2000 list and 47th in the Fortune Global 500 list in 2025 [1] - Ping An aims to be a world-leading provider of integrated finance, health, and senior care services [1]

2026年2月27日，河北金融监管局发布批复称，《中国平安（601318）人寿保险股份有限公司河北分公 司关于中国平安人寿保险股份有限公司河北分公司藁城营销服务部变更营业场所的请示》(平保寿冀分 发〔2026〕14号)及相关材料收悉。经审核，现批复如下： 二、中国平安人寿保险股份有限公司应按照有关规定及时办理变更及许可证换领事宜。 一、同意中国平安人寿保险股份有限公司河北分公司藁城营销服务部将营业场所变更为：河北省石家庄 市藁城区站南街荣威紫郡底商2-101第二层整层。 ...

Group 1 - The insurance stocks that had been declining have rebounded, with AIA Group rising over 5% [1] - China Reinsurance and Yunfeng Financial both increased by over 4% [1] - China Pacific Insurance rose by 3.7%, while China Life, New China Life, and ZhongAn Online gained over 2% [1] - China People's Insurance, China Property & Casualty Insurance, Sunshine Insurance, China Life Insurance, and Ping An Insurance all saw increases of over 1% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the non-bank financial sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [3]. Core Insights - The Chinese insurance industry has shown rapid growth, with total investment assets reaching 38.5 trillion yuan by the end of Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 15.7% [20][21]. - The allocation of investment assets has shifted significantly towards bonds, which increased from 33.3% in Q1 2019 to 50.4% in Q4 2025, while the share of stocks and funds rose from 12.4% to 15.4% during the same period [26][20]. - The performance of insurance companies is highly sensitive to fluctuations in equity markets and interest rates, with both static and dynamic impacts on their financial performance [36]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Insurance Industry Investment Status - The insurance industry has maintained a compound annual growth rate of 18.6% in investment assets from 2004 to 2025, with a notable recovery in growth rates following a low point in 2021 [20]. - The proportion of investment assets allocated to life insurance companies has remained around 90% since 2022, indicating their dominance in the market [21]. 2. Sensitivity Analysis of Equity Market Upturn - A 10% increase in equity investment prices could lead to an average pre-tax profit increase of 38.7%, with China Pacific Insurance showing the highest sensitivity at 83.4% [2]. - If equity investment prices rise by 10% alongside a 10% increase in equity allocation, the average pre-tax profit could increase by 81.2%, with China Pacific Insurance again leading at 175.2% [2]. 3. Sensitivity Analysis of Interest Rate Increases - A 50 basis point increase in market interest rates could result in an average pre-tax profit increase of 0.7%, with China Life and China Pacific showing significant positive elasticity [2][3]. 4. Economic Assumption Sensitivity Analysis - An increase in investment return rates and risk discount rates by 50 basis points could enhance new business value by an average of 35%, with China Life and New China Life showing the highest sensitivity [12]. 5. Liability Cost Analysis - The average new policy liability cost is estimated at 2.76%, with Ping An and China Life having the lowest costs [12]. - The report suggests that effective management of liability costs will enhance the long-term profitability of insurance companies [12]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights that the insurance sector is currently undervalued and suggests a systematic allocation of investments in this sector due to its high beta elasticity and resilience [12].

Group 1 - Insurance stocks that had been declining have rebounded, with AIA Group rising over 5%, China Reinsurance and Yunfeng Financial up over 4%, and China Taiping increasing by 3.7% [1][1] - Guotai Junan released a report expressing optimism about undervalued insurance stocks and their valuation recovery opportunities, driven by strong demand for insurance savings from residents and expected improvements in liability costs [1][1] - GF Securities reported that domestic equities and securities investment funds are favored by insurance institutions for 2026, with a positive outlook on the A-share market and plans for slight increases in A-share allocations [1][1] Group 2 - The long-term interest rates have been stable in the range of 1.79%-1.90% since 2026, which is expected to improve profitability for insurance companies as they optimize asset management strategies [1][1] - The report from Guotai Junan maintains an "overweight" rating for the insurance industry, anticipating a turning point in the cost of existing liabilities due to stable long-term interest rates and capital market improvements [1][1] - The majority of insurance institutions are optimistic about high-grade industrial bonds, perpetual bonds, and convertible bonds for this year, indicating a shift in investment strategy [1][1]

针对近期中东局势导致不少平安客户被迫滞留现象，中国平安统筹旗下产险、寿险、健康险及银行等公司第一时间发 布预警和撤离建议，并同步搜集预警地区的人员情况和客户需求。据悉，平安全球急难救援服务中心连日来不断向客 户提示潜在风险预警，推送专项风险分析报告。截至目前，平安累计发出风险预警信息59条，发布23份风险分析报 告，积极回应52次客户咨询，并成功于24小时内协助2位企业客户从中东"危险区"安全撤离。 随着局势升级，平安陆续接到客户撤离请求。3月3日，某中资大型集团向平安全球急难救援热线求助。该公司聚焦新 能源无人机研发制造，是"新能源装备+低空经济"双赛道出海的中资企业代表，平安是其海外安全保障服务提供商。 该公司2名员工原计划从阿联酋（伊朗周边国家）乘机回国，但因战事导致商业航班中断，需经陆路撤离至阿曼中 转，从迪拜至阿曼马斯喀国际机场特车程约400公里，战乱期间耗时长达8至11小时。平安接到客户撤离需求后立即启 动全球急难救援机制： 4、全程专车+高端安保护送：为保障客户人身安全，救援安全顾问特别安排专车与武装护卫的高端安保车队，全程贴 身护送。 目前，该公司两名员工已从中东危险区域安全转移，正在平安协助 ...

截至目前，该公司两名员工已从中东危险区域安全转移，正在平安协助下经第三国转机返回国内。 针对近期中东局势导致不少客户被迫滞留现象，中国平安统筹旗下产险、寿险、健康险及银行等公司第 一时间发布预警和撤离建议，并同步搜集预警地区的人员情况和客户需求。 3月4日，南都湾财社记者从中国平安方面了解到，平安全球急难救援服务中心连日来不断向客户提示潜 在风险预警，推送专项风险分析报告。截至目前，其累计发出风险预警信息59条，发布23份风险分析报 告，积极回应52次客户咨询，并于24小时内协助2位企业客户从中东"危险区"安全撤离。 据中国平安方面介绍，随着局势升级，陆续接到客户撤离请求。3月3日，某中资大型集团向平安全球急 难救援热线求助。该公司聚焦新能源无人机研发制造，是"新能源装备+低空经济"双赛道出海的中资企 业代表，平安是其海外安全保障服务提供商。该公司2名员工原计划从阿联酋（伊朗周边国家）乘机回 国，但因战事导致商业航班中断，需经陆路撤离至阿曼中转，从迪拜至阿曼马斯喀国际机场特车程约 400公里，战乱期间耗时长达8至11小时。 接到客户撤离需求后，平安方面立即启动全球急难救援机制。其中，包括6小时内协调当地安保力 ...

执业证书编号：S0740525040002 保险观点更新：强β情绪释放，重回起涨点，估 值性价比再现 保险Ⅱ 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2026 年 03 月 04 日 Email：geyx01@zts.com.cn | 上市公司数 | 5 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 32,974.79 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 32,974.79 | 执业证书编号：S0740517090005 Email：jiangqiao@zts.com.cn 1、《中小保险公司风险化解观察与思 考——寻中国特色范式，筑金融强国 根基》2026-03-02 2、《股票余额占比再攀新高，全年股 基累计劲增 1.6 万亿——4Q25 保险 资金运用分析》2026-02-15 3、《大型保险央企注资：进度符合预 期，关注定增价格》2026-02-01 风险提示：长端利率下行，地缘政治动荡导致境内外权益市场大幅波动等 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 评级： 增持（维持） 报告摘要 分析师：葛玉翔 事件：近日保险股股价持续承压，我们认为短期情绪释放到位，关注本轮调整较大的 中国太保、中国人寿、中国平安和 ...