基金观察：如何看待债市机会与风险？

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations in 2025, with a shift in investor preference towards equities anticipated for 2026 due to declining risk premiums and supportive macroeconomic policies [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The bond market has seen a strong performance over the past four years, primarily due to a lack of attractive returns in the equity market, leading investors to favor lower-risk bond assets [2]. - A significant drop in risk premiums indicates a rising risk appetite among investors, which is likely to result in a decline in bond prices and an increase in stock market performance [2]. - The central economic work conference has set a positive tone for macroeconomic policies, emphasizing proactive fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policies, which are expected to enhance investor sentiment towards economic recovery [2]. Group 2: Investor Strategies - Investors should adjust their strategies in light of potential economic recovery, focusing on early indicators of corporate profitability such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) [3]. - Recommendations for bond investors include reducing duration by holding shorter-duration bonds and increasing exposure to equity-linked products like convertible bond funds and secondary bond funds to enhance returns [3]. - In the current interest rate environment, the choice between pure bond funds, convertible bond funds, and ETFs tracking government and technology innovation bonds should be based on the investor's outlook on interest rates and economic conditions [4][5]. Group 3: Product Insights - Pure bond funds are focused solely on bond assets, requiring careful attention to the fund manager's ability to adjust the portfolio based on credit and interest rate research [4]. - Government bond ETFs track government bond indices and are sensitive to interest rate changes, while technology innovation bonds carry additional credit risks, potentially offering higher returns [5].