CGWS(SZ:002939) 智通财经网·2026-01-14 02:49Core Insights - The biodiesel industry is positioned at the intersection of "global green demand expansion" and "China's unique resource endowment," with short-term performance supported by export demand and long-term market potential driven by domestic policies [1] - Biodiesel, as an environmentally friendly energy source, is expected to benefit from both policy and demand incentives amid the global carbon neutrality trend [1] - The industry is transitioning from first-generation FAME to second-generation HVO biodiesel, which offers superior performance and carbon reduction benefits, making it a key choice for high-end sectors like transportation and aviation [2] Industry Growth and Demand - The global biodiesel market is experiencing continuous growth, driven primarily by mandatory blending policies in developed markets like the EU and the US [3] - The EU aims to increase the share of renewable energy in the transport sector to 29% by 2030, while the US RFS plan is set to promote ongoing growth in biofuel consumption [3] - From 2009 to 2023, global biodiesel consumption grew at a CAGR of approximately 10.34%, with projections of 5.71% CAGR from 2024 to 2027; HVO consumption is expected to grow even faster at an average annual rate of 16.38% from 2024 to 2028 [3] Supply Dynamics - Global biodiesel production is steadily increasing, with a CAGR of about 8.08% from 2012 to 2025, primarily in the EU and the US [4] - Southeast Asia, South America, and China are expected to gradually reshape the biodiesel supply landscape due to their raw material advantages [4] - Southeast Asian countries benefit from palm oil production, while South America leverages low-cost raw materials and compatibility with RFS; China utilizes waste cooking oil to achieve carbon reduction [4] Trade Patterns - The global biodiesel trade is shifting from "cost basins" to "policy highlands," reflecting a complex network influenced by resource endowments and policy compliance [5] - Current trade routes include Southeast Asia exporting low-cost raw materials to Europe, South America supplying the US with soybean oil products, and China primarily exporting to the EU [5] China's Market Landscape - China's biodiesel market is currently export-driven, with domestic demand poised for growth due to policy catalysts [6] - In 2024, China's biodiesel production capacity is expected to exceed 5 million tons per year, with an estimated output of 3.035 million tons, while consumption is only 867,000 tons [6] - The export volume to the EU is projected to decline by 75.41% in 2024 due to anti-dumping policies, prompting a shift towards SAF transformation and domestic market expansion [7] Industry Barriers - The core barriers in the biodiesel industry are centered around raw material control, technological breakthroughs, and economies of scale [8] - Companies with stable waste cooking oil recovery networks can establish cost advantages, while HVO/SAF production involves complex processes that require advanced technology [8] - Large-scale facilities can spread fixed costs, with leading global companies having HVO capacities exceeding 500,000 tons per year, and domestic firms accelerating expansion [8]