美国页岩气革命重塑全球天然气供需格局

Core Insights - The United States is the world's largest producer and consumer of natural gas, significantly influencing the global LNG market. The shale gas revolution has transformed the supply-demand dynamics, shifting the U.S. from a net importer to a net exporter of natural gas [1] Production Overview - U.S. natural gas production has steadily increased, surpassing Russia since 2011, with a global share of over 20% from 2015 to 2024, projected to reach approximately 25% in 2024 [2] - From 2014 to 2023, U.S. natural gas production rose from 27.1 trillion cubic feet to 37.8 trillion cubic feet, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.4% [2] - The shale gas revolution began in the late 1990s, making shale gas the largest source of U.S. natural gas, accounting for 77% of production in 2024 [3] Regional Production - Major U.S. natural gas production regions include the Appalachian, Permian, and Haynesville areas, contributing approximately 68% of total U.S. production in the first half of 2025 [4] - In 2023, the Appalachian region produced 33 billion cubic feet per day, ranking second globally, while the Permian and Haynesville regions ranked fifth and eighth, respectively [4] Import Dependency - The U.S. has reduced its natural gas import dependency to 7%-11% from 2015 to 2024, primarily importing pipeline gas from Canada and Mexico [5][6] - Canada remains the largest source of U.S. natural gas imports, accounting for over 96% of total imports, mainly through pipelines [6] Consumption Trends - The U.S. is also the largest consumer of natural gas, with consumption accounting for about 21% of global totals from 2015 to 2024 [7] - U.S. natural gas consumption grew from 27.2 trillion cubic feet in 2015 to 33.1 trillion cubic feet in 2024, with a CAGR of 2%, driven mainly by increased demand for natural gas in power generation [8] LNG Export Growth - Since 2017, the U.S. has become a net exporter of natural gas, with exports rising from 4.5% in 2010 to 18.9% in 2024, and total exports reaching a record 7.7 trillion cubic feet in 2024 [12] - LNG exports have surged, with volumes increasing from 16.7 billion cubic feet in 2015 to 4.37 trillion cubic feet in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 74.4% [13] - In 2024, LNG exports accounted for 57% of total U.S. natural gas exports, with Europe being the primary destination, comprising 53% of LNG exports [14][15]