As Netflix Drops 33%, Is NFLX Stock Buy Ahead of Q4 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - Netflix shares have experienced significant pressure ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings report, with a decline of over 26% in the past three months and currently sitting 33% below its 52-week high of $134.12, despite solid underlying business performance [1][3]. Group 1: Business Performance - The streaming giant benefits from strong content offerings, steady subscriber growth, and an expanding push into advertising, which have supported revenue and earnings growth [2]. - Viewer engagement on the platform remains healthy, indicating that core business fundamentals are not deteriorating [2]. Group 2: Acquisition and Market Sentiment - Uncertainty surrounding Netflix's bid to acquire Warner Bros. has introduced new risks that have negatively impacted investor sentiment, including regulatory scrutiny and integration challenges [3]. - The acquisition is expected to add significant debt to Netflix's balance sheet, and the potential for equity dilution has further pressured the share price [3]. Group 3: Earnings Outlook - A solid fourth-quarter report may not be sufficient to calm the market due to the overhang from the Warner Bros. Discovery deal, which could lead to sharp stock movements regardless of financial results [4]. - Options markets indicate elevated expectations for volatility, with traders pricing in a post-earnings move of approximately 7.3%, higher than Netflix's average earnings-related move of about 6.6% over the past four quarters [4]. - Following the last earnings release, the stock fell by 10.1%, highlighting potential market reactions to earnings [4]. Group 4: Q4 Preview - Heading into the fourth quarter, Netflix has significant tailwinds, supported by a compelling content slate, a growing global membership base, and accelerating momentum in advertising [5].