提前大选前景恐加剧日本财政风险，日债再遭猛烈抛售

Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has decided to dissolve the House of Representatives on January 23, leading to early elections, amid concerns that expansionary fiscal policies will exacerbate fiscal risks, causing a surge in Japanese government bond yields [1] - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield reached 2.18%, a 27-year high, while the 30-year yield hit 3.52%, a record high, reflecting market anxiety over potential increases in economic stimulus and debt levels [1][2] - Following the announcement, the Nikkei 225 index surged over 3.6% at the open, closing with a 3.1% gain, while the yen and Japanese bonds faced significant declines [1] Group 2 - Since taking office, Kishida has faced challenges including a weak yen, inflation above targets, and economic sluggishness, prompting a record economic stimulus plan of 21.3 trillion yen and a budget of 122.3 trillion yen for fiscal year 2026 [2] - The Bank of Japan has shifted from a long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy to a forward-looking adjustment, with interest rates expected to rise to 0.75% by December 2025, the highest level in 30 years [2] - Concerns about Japan's fiscal health have intensified, with the country's debt exceeding twice its economic output, leading to increased government bond issuance and a rising debt servicing burden [2] Group 3 - Kishida emphasized that promoting economic growth is more important than concerns over rising long-term interest rates, stating that the new budget includes significant future-oriented investments aimed at creating a virtuous cycle of investment and growth [3] - The government projects a nominal GDP growth rate of 3.4% and a real wage growth rate of 1.3%, indicating a clearer economic outlook [3]