全球经济在贸易与政策不确定性中展现韧性 中国2026年增长率预计为4.4%

Global Economic Outlook - The World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects report indicates that despite ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainties, global economic resilience exceeds expectations, with growth rates projected to remain stable over the next two years, declining to 2.6% in 2026 and rebounding to 2.7% in 2027, an upward revision from previous forecasts [2] - China's growth rate for 2026 is expected to be 4.4%, reflecting fiscal stimulus, resilient exports, and stabilized trade policies [2] East Asia and Pacific Economic Outlook - The East Asia and Pacific region's economic growth is projected to slow from 5.0% in 2024 to 4.8% in 2025, with China's growth expected to decelerate to 4.9%, supported by fiscal stimulus and resilient exports, although real estate investment continues to contract [3] - By 2026, the region's growth rate is expected to decline to 4.4%, primarily due to slowing growth in China, while growth outside of China is projected to slightly decrease to 4.5% in 2026 before rebounding to 4.7% in 2027 [3] Developing Economies - Growth in developing economies is anticipated to slow from 4.2% in 2025 to 4% in 2026, with a potential recovery to 4.1% in 2027, while low-income countries are expected to grow faster, averaging 5.6% during 2026-2027 due to solid domestic demand and export recovery [4] - The income gap between developing and developed economies remains significant, with per capita income growth in developing economies projected at 3%, which is about 1 percentage point lower than the average from 2000-2019, resulting in per capita income being only 12% of that in developed economies [4]