3 6 Ke·2026-01-14 03:45Core Insights - The PD-1/VEGF dual antibody sector is experiencing a divergence, with Yiming Biotech facing setbacks due to the return of its PD-L1/VEGF dual antibody by partner Axion, while Rongchang Biotech secured a significant licensing deal worth $5.6 billion with AbbVie, highlighting the increasing differentiation within the dual antibody space and outlining the core investment theme for 2026: certainty [1][2] Group 1: Investment Trends - The investment landscape in the pharmaceutical sector is shifting from a focus on broad-based licensing deals to a preference for certainty in value, emphasizing three core anchors: expectation certainty, product certainty, and performance certainty [2][6] - The previous trend of "BD is king" in 2025 led to a surge in licensing deals, but the market is now recalibrating its valuation logic, moving away from blind enthusiasm towards a more rational assessment of the feasibility of these deals [1][2] Group 2: Expectation Certainty - Expectation certainty involves a rational evaluation of the feasibility of BD transactions rather than blind pursuit of total deal amounts, as the probability of new drugs progressing from early clinical stages to market approval is only 7.9% [3][4] - The competitive landscape in the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody sector shows that not all players can achieve their expected value due to overlapping targets and indications, mirroring past trends in the PD-1 monoclonal antibody market [3][4] Group 3: Product Certainty - Product certainty focuses on the potential for substantial sales post-launch, with products that have clear growth logic expected to command higher valuations [5][6] - WanTai Biotech's nine-valent HPV vaccine, priced at 499 yuan per dose (40% of imported vaccines), is positioned for significant market penetration, while Innovent Biologics' Ma Shidu peptide faces challenges due to increased competition and pricing pressures, leading to diminished commercial value [5][6] Group 4: Performance Certainty - Performance certainty seeks companies and sectors with clear growth or recovery expectations, as the essence of investment is capturing expectation differences [7][8] - WuXi AppTec's profit forecast for 2025 indicates a significant growth of 41.33% year-on-year, reflecting its foundational role in the global pharmaceutical supply chain and a potential recovery in valuation due to increased R&D investments [7][8] - The vaccine sector is also poised for recovery, with domestic companies expected to benefit from a broad replacement market and initial overseas expansion, indicating a favorable investment outlook [7][8]