国信证券：草铵膦等农药出口退税取消 落后产能有望加速出清

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of export tax rebates for certain pesticide raw materials, including glyphosate, starting April 1, 2026, will initially squeeze profits for related companies and increase product prices, but will ultimately drive industry upgrades and enhance product value [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for several pesticide raw materials, including glyphosate, effective April 1, 2026 [2]. - The removal of export tax rebates is expected to pressure profit margins for glyphosate and other pesticide companies in the short term, while also leading to price increases due to heightened export demand and domestic spring planting preparations [3]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The cancellation of export tax rebates will force the elimination of outdated production capacity and encourage domestic glyphosate companies to upgrade to refined glyphosate and extend into downstream formulations, thereby increasing product value [3]. - The glyphosate market is currently experiencing tight supply and demand, with production expected to grow from 18,300 tons in 2020 to 120,400 tons by 2025, representing a 658.38% increase and an annual compound growth rate of 45.78% [3]. - The export rebate rate for pesticide formulations remains at 9%, and in 2024, China's pesticide formulation export value reached 61.36 billion yuan, surpassing raw material exports for the first time, with a share of 54.12% [3].